Comments on: Stats on Theme Voting

By: Oreganik

Oreganik — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 16:43:51 +0000

@Johnfn, actually, I do worry about it! =D I thought along the same lines, and included the Round of each theme entry on the sheet for that reason. At the moment, I can’t come up with some sort of formula to adjust for that. But I plan to in the future.

Also, the spreadsheet is open to the public, so anybody can plug in formulas if they like. =)

Thanks for the suggestion!

By: johnfn

johnfn — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 07:46:38 +0000

I really enjoy this.

One thing to note is that +1/0/-1 votes are not objective!! They are relative to how good the rest of the themes are. Previously themes that didn’t have the most +1s in their round have won the overall thing. This is probably because they had a tougher round with tougher opponents. That kind of throws a wrench in the calculations. Maybe you don’t want to worry about it :p

By: Oreganik

Oreganik — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 06:56:22 +0000

I have a new qualitative measurement, based on the Internet Movie Database. ^_^ Searching for the entry name gives us Exact and Partial matches, which are a decent measurement of how “alluring” the idea behind the entry is, and how much “punch” it has.

Looking at past data (I’m up to LD 21), the IMDB score, and the theme / mechanic / concept summary above, I think it’s going to be -very- tight for Survive (first) and Abandoned (second), with Afterlife maybe coming in third.

If I’m right, nobody cares, even me. But, what the hell. I’ll give myself one extra beer after I submit my game if I get anywhere close.

By: sfernald

sfernald — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 06:48:55 +0000

“Abandon” all hope ye who enter.

By: Oreganik

Oreganik — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 05:49:33 +0000

OK, finished the numbers on LD 22. Here’s my thesis:

Popular “ideas” make it through the voting rounds, but only “themes” — not “mechanics” or “concepts” — win the day.

Example from LD 22, sorted by place. The number is its “equalized popularity” (defined in the spreadsheet).
1. Alone (Theme) : 2.47
2. Randomly generated (Mechanic) : 3.12
3. Evolution (Mechanic) : 1.78
4. Parallel dimension (Concept) : 1.70
5. Forgotten places (Theme) : 1.36

Same from LD 23:
1. Tiny World (Theme) : 1.99
2. Exploration (Mechanic) : 1.80
3. Evolution (Mechanic) : 1.18
4. Survival (Concept) : 0.93
5. Minimalism (Concept) : 1.69

Based on the raw numbers alone, I can’t predict a winner. But I’m starting to wonder if applying qualitative values to the entries might assist in prediction…

FFS, this is a weird way to spend a Wednesday night.

By: Oreganik

Oreganik — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 05:13:16 +0000

I crunched the numbers on LD 23 and compared them against the results. You can see them on the same link I posted above.

If the LD 23 results are any indication, you can safely ignore these predictions. =D