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Ludum Dare 29 — April 25th-28th Weekend [9 PM EST] — Theme: ??? (Theme Voting!)
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    Stats on Theme Voting

    Posted by (twitter: @oreganik)
    August 22nd, 2012 9:23 pm

    I put all of the voting results into a spreadsheet and created some formulas, to see if some interesting patterns would appear.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AggPSzQrQESgdERPSzVUdXl0MENvbkJ3cnBnR0N1eHc

    Total Score: The most basic sense of what’s hot or not: all the +1′s and -1′s added together.

    Top Ranked: Abandoned (405), Survive (299), Parallel Worlds (253)

    Bottom Ranked: Regret (-594), Inhabiting (-568), Precision (-564)

    Polarity: How strongly people felt about the theme. The percentage is how many people voted +1 or -1, instead of a zero, or “meh.” The winner should be no surprise to Ludum Dare veterans!

    Top Ranked: Kittens (88.38%), Loneliness (84.11%), Pirate (83.76%)

    Bottom Ranked: Natural World (71.86%), Lost Paradise (72.51%), Stolen (73.16%)

    Popularity: The total votes, multiplied by Polarity. Will this tell us the eventual winner?

    Top Ranked: Abandoned (3.17), Survive (2.45), Parallel Worlds (2.06)

    Bottom Ranked: Regret (-4.78), Kittens (-4.52), Pirate (-4.46)

    Love: What about multiplying +1 times Polarity? How do they stack up then? Because (finally) Abandoned isn’t at the top!

    Top Ranked: Survive (6.96), Abandoned (6.76), Evolution (6.49)

    Bottom Ranked: Inhabiting (2.33), Precision (2.39), Stolen (2.52)

    Hate: Just for grins, what’s the result of -1 votes times Polarity? Higher means more Hate!

    Top Ranked: Kittens (8.94), Pirate (7.82), Regret (7.56)

    Bottom Ranked: Abandoned (3.59), Creation and Destruction (4.14), Chain Reaction (4.29)

    TL;DR: Abandoned is the clear favorite. It also has the most total votes by a wide margin, so that doesn’t come as a surprise. But the level of hate directed at Kittens is incredible! It’s not at the bottom of total votes, by any means, but these formulas suss out  a deeper, borderline pathological intemperance for our planet’s young felines!

    Now to plunge into deeper LD voting tallies, if I can find them…

    6 Responses to “Stats on Theme Voting”

    1. Oreganik says:

      I crunched the numbers on LD 23 and compared them against the results. You can see them on the same link I posted above.

      If the LD 23 results are any indication, you can safely ignore these predictions. =D

    2. Oreganik says:

      OK, finished the numbers on LD 22. Here’s my thesis:

      Popular “ideas” make it through the voting rounds, but only “themes” — not “mechanics” or “concepts” — win the day.

      Example from LD 22, sorted by place. The number is its “equalized popularity” (defined in the spreadsheet).
      1. Alone (Theme) : 2.47
      2. Randomly generated (Mechanic) : 3.12
      3. Evolution (Mechanic) : 1.78
      4. Parallel dimension (Concept) : 1.70
      5. Forgotten places (Theme) : 1.36

      Same from LD 23:
      1. Tiny World (Theme) : 1.99
      2. Exploration (Mechanic) : 1.80
      3. Evolution (Mechanic) : 1.18
      4. Survival (Concept) : 0.93
      5. Minimalism (Concept) : 1.69

      Based on the raw numbers alone, I can’t predict a winner. But I’m starting to wonder if applying qualitative values to the entries might assist in prediction…

      FFS, this is a weird way to spend a Wednesday night.

    3. sfernald says:

      “Abandon” all hope ye who enter.

    4. Oreganik says:

      I have a new qualitative measurement, based on the Internet Movie Database. ^_^ Searching for the entry name gives us Exact and Partial matches, which are a decent measurement of how “alluring” the idea behind the entry is, and how much “punch” it has.

      Looking at past data (I’m up to LD 21), the IMDB score, and the theme / mechanic / concept summary above, I think it’s going to be -very- tight for Survive (first) and Abandoned (second), with Afterlife maybe coming in third.

      If I’m right, nobody cares, even me. But, what the hell. I’ll give myself one extra beer after I submit my game if I get anywhere close.

    5. johnfn says:

      I really enjoy this. :D

      One thing to note is that +1/0/-1 votes are not objective!! They are relative to how good the rest of the themes are. Previously themes that didn’t have the most +1s in their round have won the overall thing. This is probably because they had a tougher round with tougher opponents. That kind of throws a wrench in the calculations. Maybe you don’t want to worry about it :p

    6. Oreganik says:

      @Johnfn, actually, I do worry about it! =D I thought along the same lines, and included the Round of each theme entry on the sheet for that reason. At the moment, I can’t come up with some sort of formula to adjust for that. But I plan to in the future.

      Also, the spreadsheet is open to the public, so anybody can plug in formulas if they like. =)

      Thanks for the suggestion!

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