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    Prediction: 1000 entries to LD

    Posted by (twitter: @thedayturns)
    December 13th, 2011 6:33 pm

    The total number of voters on the first round of theme voting is usually fairly predicative of the number of entries. See:

    http://www.ludumdare.com/compo/ld-21-voting-round-1-of-5/ Votes: ~650, Entries: 600.

    http://www.ludumdare.com/compo/ld-20-voting-round-1-of-6/ Votes: ~400, Entries: 350.

    So, after some fuzzy math, my guess is we’ll get 1000 entries this time.

    Thoughts? I’m nervous!

    6 Responses to “Prediction: 1000 entries to LD”

    1. ASTERISCUS says:

      No way we hit 1000 unless a bunch more voters turn up for the later rounds. It would be a spectacular achievement for the competition, sure, but if complete game development newbs like me are entering there’s no way the ~90% completion rate holds. :D

      • johnfn says:

        Yep, the final round usually gets double the votes of the first round. I predict we’ll get lots of noobs! :-)

      • digital_sorceress says:

        Remember that voters and contestents are not the exact same set of people.

        Some of those who voted will not take part, while some voters will attempt the challenge but fail to submit anything.
        Some people are yet to arrive here, and will have missed out on the voting. While some who intend to take part didn’t bother voting.

        So 91% isn’t a success rate, it’s just the ratio of #voters/#submitters.

        diagram: http://img.ie/50c72.png

        For the past 2 LDs, the number of new contestants made up about 1/3 of the total, and 660 -> 1100 is in that ball park.

    2. bobbobowitz says:

      1K entries?????? Awesome!!!!!!

    3. EmptyFlash says:

      Did some calculations as well, and this seems pretty spot on. It could actually be a bit more that 1000, which is just outstanding.

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